The data in Fehr and Tyran (2001) and Petersen and Winn (2014) show that money illusion plays an important role in nominal price adjustment after a fully anticipated negative monetary shock. Money illusion affects subjects’ expectations, and causes pronounced nominal inertia after a negative shock but much less inertia after a positive shock. Thus Petersen and Winn (2014) provide a misleading i...

Speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently delivers better welfare outcomes than flexible inflation targeting or flexible price level targeting in empirical New Keynesian models when policymakers lack the ability to commit to future policies. Even if the policymaker can commit under an inflation targeting s...

This paper presents a general approximation method for characterizing timevarying equilibrium portfolios in a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The method can be easily adapted to most dynamic general equilibrium models, it applies to environments in which markets are complete or incomplete, and it can be used for models of any dimension. Moreover, the approximation provides simple...

This paper evaluates the performance of optimal simple policy rules in the presence of news shocks. It is shown that the inclusion of forward-looking elements enhances the performance of simple optimized interest rate rules when agents learn about future disturbances in advance. We provide a rationale for this result by demonstrating that, if shocks are news shocks, the optimal unrestricted con...

We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages (standard) monetary policy rule contribute slow response In turn, labor market segmentation at the level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps fast sector-specific est...

We provide evidence of the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor analysis. An increase in driven aggregate prices increases employment and payroll nontradable industries total, with no on tradable industries. In model geographic heterogeneity wealth, these responses imply an MPC 3.2 cents per year that 20 percent valuations, unless countered monetary policy, bill at leas...

The introduction of legalized abortion in the early 1970s led to dramatic changes in fertility behavior. Some research has suggested as well that there were important impacts on cohort outcomes, but this literature has been limited and controversial. In this paper, we provide a framework for understanding the mechanisms through which abortion access affects cohort outcomes, and use that framewo...

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in volatility US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances local structural shocks from stochastic specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between endogenous variables and setting, find that interest rate uncertainty not only drives output inflation volatility, but also causes...

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics expectations for the United States other countries over postwar period. In our theory, long-run are endogenous. They driven by short-run surprises, way that depends on recent forecasting performance monetary policy. This distinguishes from common explanations properties inflation. Th...

We use quasi-random access to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) identify causal effect of refinancing into a lower-rate mortgage on borrower balance sheet outcomes. Refinancing substantially reduces default rates mortgages and other debt. also causes borrowers expand their debt instruments, such as auto loans, home equity lines, consumer debts that are proxies for spending. Borrowers...