Two sources of asymmetry in the Phillips curve are considered: the “capacity constraint hypothesis” and downward rigidity on wages and/or prices. The short run trade-off between inflation changes and the unemployment gap is modeled in a state-space framework that allows for time variation in both the NAIRU and the trade-off parameter. Empirical evidence for the US using the Kalman filter favors...

This paper uses a cross-state panel for the United States over the 1976 to 2007 period to assess the relationship between income inequality and the inflation rate. Employing a semiparametric instrument variable (IV) estimator, we find that the relationship depends on the level of the inflation rate. A positive relationship occurs only if the states exceed a threshold level of inflation rate. Be...

We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed economies, we find that long-term...

The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast it has been argued that a Neo-Fisherian policy of setting an interest-rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning ar...

This paper is an empirical analysis of the likelihood of failure of inflation stabilization programs. Logit models are estimated on a dataset of 39 programs implemented in 10 countries since the late 1950s, in order to determine which economic and political variables affect the probability of failure of stabilizations. Besides the well-known effects of real exchange rate appreciation, decreasin...

Inflation targeting needs to be supplemented by an economic growth target so that central banks will not adopt monetary policy which results in stagnation. There is no guarantee that the economy will move towards full employment by itself when the inflation rate is kept between two to three per cent. Monetary policy does not have a comparative advantage in achieving price stability. Svensson's ...

This paper investigates price rigidity arise out of the speci c market structures, such as degree of market concentration and pricing decisions of retailers and manufacturers. Using Japanese scanner data that contains transaction prices and sales for more than 1,600 commodity groups from 1988 to 2008, we nd statistically signi cant negative correlation between the degree of market concentration...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI in‡ation (core in‡ation) for Italy is estimated over the 1962-1997 period within the framework of a multivariate common trends model. In this framework core in‡ation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of in‡ation. This measure displays several desirable properties: lower variability than observed in‡ation,...

The paper analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on inflation. We develop a monetary and endogenous growth, dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open semi-industrialized economy, with financial intermediaries subjected to obligatory ”high” reserve ratio, serving as the source of financial repression. When calibrated to four Southern European semi-industrialized countries, name...

This paper develops a measure of U.S. monetary policy shocks for the period 1969–1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. Quantitative and narrative records are used to infer the Federal Reserve’s intentions for the federal funds rate around FOMC meetings. This series is regressed on the Federal Reserve’s internal forecasts to derive a measure free of systematic re...