This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. It creates an anthropic decision theory (ADT) that decides these problems from a small set of principles. By doing so, it demonstrates that th...

Pedestrianand cyclistinvolved crashes at intersections remain a major concern in China due to high ratio of fatal injuries and fatalities. This paper develops the random parameters negative binominal model to determine the relationship between potential contributory factors and crash frequency involving pedestrians and bicyclists at intersection locations and identify the significant risk facto...

In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA, for short) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the EckhardtSowers-Sober analysis. The present line of thought is based on the fact that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I ...

04.09.2023: Leder - In January, 2023, the Science and Security Board of Bulletin Atomic Scientists moved hands Doomsday Clock forward to 90 s before midnight, reflecting growing risk nuclear war (1).

The doomsday argument purports to show that starting solely from the information of what your birth rank is amongst some population the extinction of that population is near at hand, or at any rate signiicantly nearer than you had previously supposed. Various authors have suggested that this is a straightforward consequence of Bayesian reasoning. We show that Bayesian reasoning is both more sub...

The words "chemical and biological weapons" (CBW) send a shiver down most spines these days. With the end of the Cold War, the possibility of a massive nuclear confrontation appears remote, so today many popular doomsday scenarios center on the aggressive use of chemical or biological warfare by rogue nations or terrorist groups. As exaggerated as some of the accounts are, with CBW cast as the ...