Liu process is a new tool to deal with the noise process based on uncertainty theory. In this paper, we view the foreign exchange rate as an uncertain process, described by an uncertain differential equation driven by Liu process, and build an uncertain currency model. Then the uncertain currency option processes are discussed. Moreover, European and American currency option pricing formulas ar...

The Basel 2 Accord requires regulatory capital to cover stress tests, yet no coherent and objective framework for stress testing portfolios exists. We propose a new methodology for stress testing in the context of market risk models that can incorporate both volatility clustering and heavy tails. Empirical results compare the performance of eight risk models with four possible conditional and u...

This paper discusses the use of fuzzy logic and modeling as a decision making support for long-term investment decisions on financial markets. A simple model is proposed to calculate recommendations for the investors. This research required thorough analysis of historical data that lead to discovery of interesting dependencies between the Dow Jones index, currency pairs, oil price and the VIX v...

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone). We empirically explore different features of currency unions, and compare them to countries with sovereign monies by examining the criteria for Mundell’s concept of an optimum currency area. We find that members of currency unions are more integrated than countries with their own cur...

In the current global economy, exchange rate forecasting is critical for investors and businesses seeking to make informed investment decisions manage risk. While many short-term methods exist, long-term are limited often fail account complex macroeconomic factors that influence trends. However, need have an analytically examined basis deciding invest, which requires knowing more about future v...

The main goal of the present paper is to analyze the effects of currency collapses (a large devaluation of country’s nominal exchange rate) on real gross domestic products of six Asian countries (Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey). A yearly data is collected from the WDI of the World Bank over the period 1980-2011. The econometric model includes the real GDP growt...

Abstract How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on flexible gravity equation that predicts variable cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. apply this framework to popular variables such as currency unions, agreements World Trade Organization membership. While we estimate these are associated with increased bilateral average, fi...

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in currency :union:s internationally. The formation of currency :union: in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has drawn much attention of Islamic countries. This paper aims to investigate the effect of currency :union: formation for trade among 49 Islamic countries over the period 1990-2012 by OCA and Augmented Gravity Model (AGM). T...