This paper begins with a review of the literature on plausible reasoning with deductive arguments containing a conditional premise. There is concurring evidence that people presented with valid conditional arguments such as Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens generally do not endorse the conclusion, but rather find it uncertain, in case (1) the plausibility of the major conditional premise is debata...

Conditional independence reasoning has been shown to be helpful in the context of Bayesian nets to optimize probabilistic inference, and related techniques have been applied to speed up a number of logical reasoning tasks in boolean logic by eliminating irrelevant parts of the formulas. This paper shows that conditional independence reasoning can also be applied to optimize epistemic model chec...

The Katsuno and Mendelzon theory of belief update has been proposed as a reasonable model for revising beliefs about a changing world. However, the semantics of update relies on information which is not readily available. We describe an alternative semantical view of update in which observations are incorporated into a belief set by: a) explaining the observation in terms of a set of plausible ...

We study abductive, causal, and non-causal conditionals in indicative and counterfactual formulations using probabilistic truth table tasks under incomplete probabilistic knowledge (N = 80). We frame the task as a probability-logical inference problem. The most frequently observed response type across all conditions was a class of conditional event interpretations of conditionals; it was follow...

This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language and logic the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicati...

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards ...

Conditional judgements—judgements employing ‘if’—are essential to practical reasoning about what do, as well much is the case. We handle them enough from an early...

We report research investigating the role of mental models in deduction. The first study deals with conjunctive inferences (from one conjunction and two conditional premises) and disjunctive inferences (from one disjunction and the same two conditionals). The second study examines reasoning from multiple conditionals such as: If e then b; If a then b; If b then c; What follows between a and c? ...

The principle of maximum entropy has proven to be a powerful approach for commonsense reasoning in probabilistic conditional logics on propositional languages. Due to this principle, reasoning is performed based on the unique model of a knowledge base that has maximum entropy. This kind of model-based inference fulfills many desirable properties for inductive inference mechanisms and is usually...