This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cro...

in the era of globalization, particularly, since early 1990s, economies around the world have been affected considerably by co-movements in one or more countries. in the literature this phenomenon is recognized as synchronization in business cycles, while joint policies being conducted by trading partners can modify such effects properly. the objective of this paper has been to evaluate a possi...

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of using Markov switching models to measure the strength of synchronization between business cycles. Synchronization is defined by the fraction of time in which two country’s business cycles are in the same state (concordance) and by the degree to which turning points cluster together (correlation). We use a Bayesian, Gibbs sampling a...