This paper examines the behavior of forecasts made from a co-integrated system as introduced by Granger (1981), Granger and Weiss (1983) and Engle and Granger (1987). It is established that a multi-step forecast will satisfy the co-integrating relation exactly and that this particular linear combination of forecasts will have a finite limiting forecast error variance. A simulation study compare...

This paper considers estimation and inference concerning the autoregressive coefficient (ρ) in a panel autoregression for which the degree of persistence in the time dimension is unknown. The main objective is to construct confidence intervals for ρ that are asymptotically valid, having asymptotic coverage probability at least that of the nominal level uniformly over the parameter space. It is ...

We study statistical inference in quantile autoregression models when the largest autoregressive coefficient may be unity. The limiting distribution of a quantile autoregression estimator and its t-statistic is derived. The asymptotic distribution is not the conventional Dickey-Fuller distribution, but a linear combination of the Dickey-Fuller distribution and the standard normal, with the weig...

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatical...

This paper examines the e↵ects of intra-financial lending – claims between financial institutions – on aggregate investment and credit to the non-financial sector in the United States. Building on Montecino, Epstein, and Levina (2014) we document a large growth in intra-financial assets beginning in the early 1980s. Using a vector autoregression model, we find that intra-financial lending is ne...