This paper studies the forward premium puzzle in an environment where private agents do not perfectly observe the shocks that drive monetary policy. Private agents optimally update their conditional expectations by means of the Kalman filter. The transition dynamics associated with Kalman filtering lead to fixed time-effects and conditional heteroskedasticity in the forward premium regression. ...

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling f...

In this paper I discuss in what way, if any, the collapse of Argentina’s experience with a currency board has affected the policy debate on the appropriate exchange rate regime in emerging and transition countries. More specifically, I deal with three issues: (1) I discuss some important aspects of the Argentine experience; (2) I provide a comparative evaluation of economic performance under st...

A large literature in exchange rate economics has investigated the forecasting performance of empirical exchange rate models using conventional point forecast accuracy criteria. However, in the context of managing exchange rate risk, interest centers on more than just point forecasts. This paper provides a formal evaluation of recent exchange rate models based on the term structure of forward e...

We study the impact of nine categories of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements on the euro/ dollar return volatility. We highlight and analyze the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and postannouncement reactions. Using high-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type models, we show that volatility increases in the pre-announcement periods, particularly before schedule...

The paper examines the economic role of modelling information on the decision problem of an exporting firm under exchange rate risk and hedging. Information is described in terms of market transparency, i.e., a publicly observable signal conveys more information about the random foreign exchange rate. We analyze the interaction between market transparency and the ex ante expected utility of the...

We study the dispersion of absolute price levels for US cities since 1918. By absolute price levels, we mean price indices that measure the cost of a given consumption basket at each point in time. We find strong evidence that city price levels converge over time and that the dispersion of price levels is lower for US cities than between OECD countries. We argue that price level convergence for...

In many situations in macroeconomics strategic complementarities arise, and agents face a coordination problem. An important issue, from both a theoretical and a policy perspective, is equilibrium uniqueness. We contribute to this literature by focusing on the macroeconomic aspect of the problem: the number of potential innovators, speculators e.t.c. is large. In particular, we follow Myerson (...

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of ...

Notwithstanding its widespread use in financial markets and well-documented profitability, technical analysis is still perceived to carry useless information. This paper provides a possible explanation for this puzzle that goes beyond the standard self-fulfilling prophecy argument. If at least some of the asset price fundamentals are not currently observable, the oscillator model is able to inf...