Bayesian inference provides a unifying framework for learning, reasoning, and decision making. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is intractable in all but the simplest models. Therefore minds and machines have to approximate Bayesian inference. Approximate inference algorithms can achieve a wide range of time-accuracy tradeoffs, but what is the optimal tradeoff? We investigate timeaccurac...

Item non-response in household survey data on economic variables such as income, assets or consumption is a well-known problem. Follow-up unfolding bracket questions have been used as a tool to collect partial information on respondents that do not answer an open-ended question. It is also known, however, that mistakes are made in answering such unfolding bracket questions. In this paper, we de...

Keeney S, Halalau A. BMJ Case Rep 2017. doi:10.1136/bcr-2017-221027 Description A 43-year-old man with a history of idiopathic acute pancreatitis and pancreatic pseudocysts presented to the hospital with acute abdominal pain, vomiting and hypotension. He had been hospitalised on multiple occasions for recurrent, self-limited abdominal pain accompanied by hypotension. Given his history, the symp...

Stackelberg games have recently gained significant attention for resource allocation decisions in security settings. One critical assumption of traditional Stackelberg models is that all players are perfectly rational and that the followers perfectly observe the leader’s strategy. However, in real-world security settings, security agencies must deal with human adversaries who may not always fol...

v

Development of molecules that can switch between redox states with paired and unpaired electrons is important for molecular electronics and spintronics. In this work, a selection of redox-active indenofluorene-extended tetrathiafulvalenes (IF-TTFs) with thioacetate end groups was prepared from a readily obtainable dibromo-functionalized IF-TTF building block using palladium-catalyzed cross-coup...

A number of experimental newsvendor studies have shown that human subjects make decisions which coincide with a “pull-to-center” effect. In general, three behavioral theories have been proposed in the literature to explain this behavior: bounded rationality, mean anchoring, and minimizing ex post inventory regret. Unfortunately, these models generate similar predictions under symmetric demand d...

BACKGROUND Mucinous ovarian adenocarcinoma is one of the less common epithelial cancers of the ovaries, and typically does not occur in younger women. Nearly all mucinous ovarian adenocarcinomas present with early-stage disease without significant sequelae of cancer, such as clotting. Anchoring bias is a common problem in medicine that has been shown to significantly affect physician decision-m...