considering the importance of government fiscal policy (government spending and state tax income) in economy and its effectiveness in well-being of people, this paper examines the effects of fiscal policy on poverty during the period 1386-1363 in iran. in this paper, considering the fact that poverty changes can be divided to changes in economic growth and changes in income distribution; initia...

Even in sustained vowels, durations of successive glottal cycles are not identical. They fluctuate quasi-randomly around an average. This phenomenon is known as jitter. More recently, correlation analysis has shown that perturbations of neighboring glottal cycles are interdependent, i.e. they are not purely random. We have shown that the non-random component of jitter can be modeled by means of...

Assuming a first-order auto-regressive model for the auto-correlation structure between observations, in this paper, a transformation method is first employed to eliminate the effect of auto-correlation. Then, a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a step change in the parameters of the transformed model is derived and three separate EWMA control charts are used to monitor the parameters of th...

The time series prediction of avian influenza epidemics is a complex issue, because avian influenza has latent seasonality which is difficult to identify. Although researchers have applied a neural network (NN) model and the Box-Jenkins model for the seasonal epidemic series research area, the results are limited. In this study, we develop a new prediction seasonal auto-regressive-based support...

It is well-known that causal forecasting methods that include appropriately chosen Exogenous Variables (EVs) very often present improved forecasting performances over univariate methods. However, in practice, EVs are usually difficult to obtain and in many cases are not available at all. In this paper, a new causal forecasting approach, called Wavelet Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average w...

A detector for the case of a radar target with known Doppler and unknown complex amplitude in complex Gaussian noise with unknown parameters has been derived. The detector assumes that the noise is an Auto-Regressive (AR) process with Gaussian autocorrelation function which is a suitable model for ground clutter in most scenarios involving airborne radars. The detector estimates the unknown...

abstract exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural products export. regarding the importance of agricultural trade, to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the pistachio export of iran during 1338-1386. for this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using ...

The advantages of using spatial analysis in annual crop experiments are well documented. There is much less evidence for perennial crops. For the sequence of measurements in perennial crops, apparently, there are no published articles in spatial analysis to date. This paper aimed at the comparison of several models, including auto-regressive, ante-dependence and character process models, in mod...