The extent to which ongoing seismicity in intraplate regions represents long-lived aftershock activity is unclear. We examined historical and instrumental seismicity in the New Madrid central U.S. region to determine whether present-day seismicity is composed predominantly of aftershocks of the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence. High aftershock productivity is required both to match the observation...

In constructing moment-balanced fault rupture models for the SF Bay region, WG99 needed to account for all the moment released by earthquakes in the region. These include earthquakes on characterized rupture sources, earthquakes on other rupture sources (background), and their aftershocks. Some of the aftershocks will be large, with magnitudes sometimes exceeding 6.7. WG99 assumed that an after...

Abstract Coseismic rotations of principal stress axes can provide insights into the strength crust, but it is unclear how common this phenomenon is. We use a nearest‐neighbor clustering algorithm to identify earthquake sequences in global ISC‐GEM catalog and regional Southern California catalog. Using an inner‐product‐based pairwise measure moment tensor similarity, we demonstrate that, both ca...

Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method f...

We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges...

[1] We show that realistic aftershock sequences with space-time characteristics compatible with observations are generated by a model consisting of brittle fault segments separated by creeping zones. The dynamics of the brittle regions is governed by static/kinetic friction, 3D elastic stress transfer and small creep deformation. The creeping parts are characterized by high ongoing creep veloci...