This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the price and macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC high-frequency data, I identify an news shock. These shocks have statistically economically significant effects. Negative leads to immediate increase prices, gradual fall production, inventories. has consequences for US econo...

Search is embeded in an overlapping-generations model. Young people participate a centralized market and a decentralized market sequentially and olds only participates the centralized market. The demographic feature allows analytical tractability. In a series examples, positve inflation rates are Pareto optimal. JEL classification: E31

Differential tax analysis is used to show how the socially optimal fiscal-tax to liquidity-tax ratio changes with the relative size of the tax-evading hidden economy. The smaller the relative size of the hidden economy, the larger the optimal fiscal-tax to liquidity-tax ratio. The empirical cross-section and panel evidence supports this theoretical result. JEL: E31, E52, H21, O17

This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...

This paper presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. JEL: E17, E31, C43

Ever since the seminal work by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) on competitive insurance markets under adverse selection the equilibrium-non-existence problem has been one of the major puzzles in insurance economics. We extend the original analysis by considering firms which face capacity constraints, which might be due to limited capital. We show that under mild assumptions a pure strategy equil...

Boschen and Weise (Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2003) model the probability of a large upturn in in‡ation. We extend their work to show that openness to trade exerts a negative e¤ect on the probability of such an event. Keywords: In‡ation starts, trade openness. JEL classi…cation: E31, F41.