A methodology for validating fire spread simulation systems using historical fire data is presented. The key features of this methodology are (a) quantitative comparison between simulator-generated fire perimeters and fire perimeters from an independently produced fire reconstruction at multiple time points during the fire, and (b) extensive sensitivity analyses on simulation variables includin...

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environment...

A new approach to fire spread simulation based on heat transfer events is described. The new simulation model is patch based with irregular patch shapes and sizes, which overcomes the influence of grid geometry on fire shape. It captures fire behaviour phenomena such as point fire acceleration and the dependence of fire rate of spread on line fire width. The new event based simulation model is ...

In this article, I give an overview of the recent contribution of Finney et al. (1) to our understanding of how wildfires spread by providing its scientific context and also by putting forward the possible impact on the field. The rise of humanity was intimately bound to fire. Humans first observed flames when fleeing wildland fires, the natural version of the phenomenon that would then become ...

Technologies now exist to simulate and observe fire spread at spatial resolutions on the order of 30 meters. The FARSITE modeling system recently introduced to the US fire management community provides twodimensional fire spread simulations from a laptop computer, given topography, fuels, and weather information. The quality of the fire spread simulations is subject to examination. This paper d...

Abstract. Wildfires are a complex phenomenon emerging from interactions between air, heat, and vegetation, while they an important component of many ecosystems’ dynamics, pose great danger to those ecosystems, as well human life property. Wildfire simulation models research tool that help further our understanding fire behaviour can allow experimentation without recourse live fires. Current fit...

Wildfires are complex natural events that cause significant environmental and property damage, as well human losses, every year throughout the world. In order to aid in their management mitigate impact, efforts have been directed towards developing decision support systems can predict wildfire propagation. Most of available tools for spread prediction based on Rothermel model that, apart from b...

Warning communities in the path of an advancing wildfire is a challenging problem. Decision makers need the most current information available to determine who should evacuate, when they should leave and what type of order to issue (e.g. mandatory, recommended, voluntary). This paper presents a new method for delimiting wildfire evacuation trigger points using fire spread modeling and GIS. Usin...

The ability to forecast the progress of crisis events would significantly reduce human suffering and loss of life, the destruction of property, and expenditures for assessment and recovery. Los Alamos National Laboratory has established a scientific thrust in crisis forecasting to address this national challenge. In the initial phase of this project, scientists at Los Alamos are developing comp...