This paper argues that estimation of the Phillips curve for Japan should take account of the geographic dispersion of labor-market conditions. We find evidence that the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is convex. With such convexity, wage inflation can occur when unemployment rates across regions become more disperse, even if the aggregate unemployment rate is uncha...

Twenty years ago, on the eve of the first of the great post-BrettonWoods recessions, unemployment did not appear to be a major problem for advanced economies. Among what would later be dubbed the G-7 nations, the United States had the highest unemployment rate at 5.5 percent; but very little of this unemployment was long-term, and the extent of short-term unemployment could be rationalized as t...

This paper studies the contribution of in‡ow and out‡ow rates to the unemployment dynamics in the long-run. I …nd that in the U.S., both in‡ow and out‡ow rates contribute signi…cantly to variation in the long-run trend of the unemployment rate. In‡ow and out‡ow rates account for roughly similar proportions of overall unemployment variability in the long-run. Keywords: Unemployment dynamics; Job...

This paper combines a search model and signaling game to analyze the interrelationship between labor market outcome and educational choices as well as relevant policy implications, featuring endogenous educational requirement for job application. It explains more than 60% of the unemployment rate difference between college and high school graduates. It predicts that higher unemployment benefit ...

In order to analyze the labor market through search and matching theory, we need deep parameters namely, rate of inflow to the unemployment pool and job-finding rate. In other words, these rates are primary parameters of matching function; hence, estimating these parameters is an essential step for the use of search and matching theory in every economy. In this paper, we estimate these rates of...

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We nd strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One nding of particular inte...

The NAIRU is the rate of unemployment consistent with stable inflation... An important challenge in setting economic policy is to identify the rate of capacity utilisation that is sustainable, in the sense that it is associated with reasonably stable inflation. There are different ways of measuring capacity utilisation. Looking at perhaps the most common measure, unemployment, this idea of sust...

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non-stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock ...

A macroeconomic examination of unemployment obscures much of the rich detail that underpins the labour market. Nevertheless, it enables us to analyse the broad trends that have occurred over the past twenty years on both the demand and supply sides of the labour market. In the next section we examine these trends at an aggregate level. The aggregate unemployment rate has risen as a result of a ...

Extended Abstract. In recent years, needs for small area estimations have been greatly increased for large surveys particularly household surveys in Sta­ tistical Centre of Iran (SCI), because of the costs and respondent burden. The lack of suitable auxiliary variables between two decennial housing and popula­ tion census is a challenge for SCI in using these methods. In general, the...