In spite of widespread criticisms, macroeconometric models are still most popular for forecasting and policy analysis. When the most recent data available on both the exogenous and the endogenous variable are preliminary estimates subject to a revision process the estimators of the coeecients are aaected by the presence of the preliminary data, the projections for the exogenous variables are aa...

Pharmaceutical and specialty chemical production often causes high waste to product ratios. This can be explained by complex reaction mechanisms that require complicated multi-step production routes as well as stringent product purity and quality requirements. Therefore a large number of different types and levels of waste are leaving pharmaceutical production campaigns and need material recove...

Ss received series of electric shocks to the forearm in which the temporal schedule and the sequence of shock intensities were associated with varying levels of randomness or uncertainty. The Ss were permitted an instrumental response which produced, in advance, information concerning 1 or both of these aspects of the shocks. Such information functioned as a strong positive reinforcement for mo...

When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world on average. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, consistently become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by develop...

abstract: in most industries the cost of raw materials and component parts constitutes almost 60% percent of cost of a product (in some industries up to 80%). in this situation, proper sourcing can play a key role in an organization's efficiency and effectiveness, because it has a direct effect on cost reduction, profitability and flexibility of a company. in this paper, determining the op...