Recently there has been much interest in modeling the activity of primate midbrain dopamine neurons as signalling reward prediction error. But since the models are based on temporaldi!erence (TD) learning, they assume an exponential decline with time in the value of delayed reinforcers, an assumption long known to con#ict with animal behavior. We show that a variant of TD learning that tracks v...

We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem of predicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predict an arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the best smooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allows natural measures of smoothness such as the squared norm of increments. More generally, we consider a linear time series model and penalize the comparator...

We consider a branching process with Poissonian immigration where individuals have inheritable types. At rate θ, new individuals singly enter the total population and start a new population which evolves like a supercritical, homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process: individuals have i.i.d. lifetimes durations (non necessarily exponential) during which they give birth independently at cons...

In this paper we present results we obtained using a compiler to predict performance of scienti c codes. The compiler, Polaris [3], is both the primary tool for estimating the performance of a range of codes, and the bene ciary of the results obtained from predicting the program behavior at compile time. We show that a simple compile-time model, augmented with pro ling data obtained using very ...

prediction of hydrological variables is a highly effective tool in water resource management. One of the important tools for modeling hydrological processes is the use of time series modeling and analysis. River series production series can be used by time series models in various studies such as drought, flood, reservoir systems design and many other purposes For this purpose, monthly flow dat...

background: infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, ...

short-term prediction of traffic flow is central to alleviating congestion and controlling the negative impacts of environmental pollution resulting from vehicle emissions on both inter- and intra-urban highways. the strong need to monitor and control congestion time and costs for metropolis in developing countries has therefore motivated the current study. this paper establishes the applicatio...

The usefulness of remaining cycle time models for predictive and prescriptive process monitoring depends not only on the overall accuracy predictions but also their earliness: should be as accurate possible, early possible. To give this criterion more weight in model fitting, paper evaluates three L1 loss functions with temporal decay. All have property increasing residuals from stages a relati...

in the management of river basins, prediction of river water quality is essential to maintain water quality within standard limits. this study performed a time-series analysis of the prediction of chlorine concentration and electrical conductivity time series data for the period of 1991-2005 from sefidrood river in northern iran. the seasonal prediction of chlorine and electrical conductivity t...