This paper uses a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with exogenous variables to explain a change in regime in Brazilian nominal interest rates. By using an indicator of currency crises the model tries to explain the difference in the dynamics of nominal interest rates during and out of a currency crises. The paper then compares the performance of the nonlinear model to a modified Taylor Rule...

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ’third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private Þrms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four m...

Throughout the 1990s, four global waves of financial turmoil occurred. The beginning of the 21st century has also suffered from several crisis episodes, including the severe subprime crisis. However, to date, the forecasting results are still disappointing. This paper examines whether new insights can be gained from the application of the SelfOrganizing Map (SOM) – a non-parametric neural netwo...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of economic growth and controls via a treatment type model for possible sample selection governing the o...

This paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the Þscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different Þnancing methods for post-crisis rates of inßation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general equilibrium model in which a currency crisis is triggered by prospective government deÞcits. We then use our model...

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for self-selection bias, because countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have sounder economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensityscore methodology to address this issue in a...

Economic Group Reserve Bank of Australia We thank colleagues in Economic Research Department and Financial System Group, especially Adam Cagliarini and David Gruen, for their suggestions. Aart Kraay generously provided some of the data used in Section 2. Any errors are ours and the opinions expressed here should not be attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia.