An occupancy problem with an infinite number of bins and a random probability vector for the locations of the balls is considered. The respective sizes of bins are related to the split times of a Yule process. The asymptotic behavior of the landscape of first empty bins, i.e., the set of corresponding indices represented by point processes, is analyzed and convergences in distribution to mixed ...

We analyze the statistical dependence structure of the S&P 500 constituents in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York Stock Exchange’s TAQ database. Instead of using a given parametric copulawith a predetermined shape, we study the empirical pairwise copula directly. We find that the shape of this copula resembles the Gaussian copula to somedegree, but exhibit...

Progress in ocean wave forecasting is described in the context of the fundamental law for wave prediction: the energy balance equation. The energy balance equation gives the rate of change of the sea state caused by adiabatic processes such as advection, and by the physical source functions of the generation of ocean waves by wind, the dissipation due to whitecapping and the nonlinear four-wave...

In an exchange economy under uncertainty populated by multiple consumers, we how the heterogeneity in the individual consumers’ subjective beliefs affect the representative consumer’s utility function. We derive a formula that indicates that the more heterogeneous the individual consumers’ beliefs are, the higher probabilities the representative consumer’s belief attaches to extreme events that...

We present a semi-supervised online method for novelty detection and evaluate its performance for radio astronomy time series data. Our approach uses adaptive eigenbases to combine 1) prior knowledge about uninteresting signals with 2) online estimation of the current data properties to enable highly sensitive and precise detection of novel signals. We apply the method to the problem of detecti...

The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception ...

C. Arnaboldi a,F. T. Avignone III b, J. Beeman c,d,M. Barucci e, M. Balata f,C. Brofferio a, C. Bucci f,S. Cebrian g, R. J. Creswick b,S. Capelli a, L. Carbone a,O. Cremonesi a, A. de Ward h,E. Fiorini a, H. A. Farach b,G. Frossati h, A. Giuliani i,D. Giugni a, P. Gorla a,E. E. Haller c,d, I. G. Irastorza g,R. J. McDonald c, A. Morales g,E. B. Norman c, P. Negri a, A. Nucciotti a, M. Pedretti i...

We show that Lévy distributed variations of payoffs in the prisoner's dilemma game impede cooperation as the frequency of rare events increases. Lévy flights thus facilitate defection, but also uphold the evolutionary process, arguably maintaining a healthy level of competitiveness amongst the agents. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scientists, health care professionals and the general public have all raised concerns about the potential health impact natural and manmade sources bioaerosols. In response in september 2012 the Natural Environmental Research Council and public health England jointly funded a workshop to review the ‘sources, quantification and health implications of bioaerosols’. The organising committee for th...

The presence of low-copy-number regulators and switch-like signal propagation in regulatory networks are expected to increase noise in cellular processes. We developed a noise amplifier that detects fluctuations in the level of low-abundance mRNAs in yeast. The observed fluctuations are not due to the low number of molecules expressed from a gene per se but originate in the random, rare events ...