Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our ...

A common sales tactic is for a seller to encourage a potential customer to make her purchase decision quickly. We consider a market with sequential consumer search in which firms often encourage first-time visitors to buy immediately, either by making an “exploding offer” (which permits no return once the consumer leaves) or by offering a “buy-now discount” (which makes the price paid for immed...

Managers can decide to reduce a warrant’s exercise price. A reduction in exercise price can induce exercise (a conversion-forcing reduction) or not (a long-term reduction). Conversionforcing firms show an abnormal return of -1.53% on the announcement day but they perform well over the three years following the announcement. This finding suggests that the funds raised from warrant exercise are i...

Stock market prediction is important and of great interest because successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits. These tasks are highly complicated and very difficult. In this paper, we investigate the predictability of stock market return with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The objective of this study is to determine whether an ANFIS algorithm i...

Option is derivative instrument that have investment benefit and provide return for the writer and the holder. Option price determination is affected by risk factor. However in Black-Scholes model option price is determined without arbitrage risk affection so it is impossible to take return. In this study, option price formula is constructed to be more represent the condition of financial marke...

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U. S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975– 2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing r...

this paper examines regime shifts in tedpix return and volatility and the effects of positive and negative crude oil shocks and gold price fluctuations on stock market shifts behavior using markov switching egarch model with student’s t-distribution. we detect two episodes of series behavior, one relative to low mean/high variance regime namely bear state and the other to high mean/low variance...

We show how low-frequency boom and bust cycles in asset prices can emerge from Bayesian learning by investors. Investors rationally maximize infinite horizon utility but hold subjective priors about the asset return process that we allow to differ infinitesimally from the rational expectations prior. Bayesian updating of return beliefs then gives rise to self-reinforcing return optimism that re...