1 Abstract In this paper, we combine a fairly complex system dynamics model of the Nord Pool power market with stochastic price models from financial economics. The idea is to combine the fundamental relationships (given by the system dynamics model) with a good representation of stochasticity from stochastic price models. The purpose is to provide long-term price prognoses for investment decis...

In this paper we analyze a simple model of adaptive competition which captures essential features of a variety of adaptive competitive systems in the social and biological sciences. In this model, each of N agents, at each time step of a game, joins one of two groups. The agents in the minority group are awarded a point, while the agents in the majority group get nothing. Each agent has a fixed...

The market distribution function is a probabilistic device that can be used to model the randomness in dispatch and clearing price that generators in electricity pool markets must take account of when submitting offers. We discuss techniques for estimating the market distribution function, and ways of measuring the quality of these estimators, using both classical statistical approaches and an ...

A market scoring rule (MSR) – a popular tool for designing algorithmic prediction markets – is an incentive-compatible mechanism for the aggregation of probabilistic beliefs from myopic risk-neutral agents. In this paper, we add to a growing body of research aimed at understanding the precise manner in which the price process induced by a MSR incorporates private information from agents who dev...

We consider an electricity generator with a single generating unit making offers of energy into an electricity pool market. For a given time period, it must submit to the pool system operator a supply function, typically consisting of a fixed number of quantities of energy and prices at which it wants these dispatched. The amount of dispatch depends on the supply function offered along with the...

An analysis was conducted to examine the market visibility of small aircraft as a transportation mode in competition with automobile and scheduled commercial air travel by estimating the pool of users that would potentially switch on-demand air travel due to cost/time saving. These new aircraft greatly increase the practicality of regional aircraft as a transportation mode that can avoid the co...