This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, the...

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic uncertainty factors can explain and forecast China’s INE crude oil futures market volatility. We use GARCH-MIDAS model to investigate explaining predicting power of uncertainties. considered various geopolitical risk (GPR) indices, economic policy (EPU) infectious disease pandemic (IDEMV) indices in our model. The empirical results suggest that ...

2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005.Though the U.S. economy has apparently absorbed this supply shock well so far, the path of future oil prices remains a concern for monetary policymakers. Higher oil prices can damp demand, as consumers and firms spend more of their budgets on oil-related products and less on other goods and services. Furthermore, if higher oil prices are pas...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, ana’ inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibriu...

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher price...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...

Peak oil” refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and to the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The peak oil literature typically rejects economic analysis. This chapter, following Holland (2008), argues that economic analysis is indeed appropriate for analyzing oil scarcity since standard economic models can replicate the observed peaks in oil production. Moreov...