This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign reserves approximate a critical level. Strong empirical support for our model is obtained by a probi...

This paper assesses whether the UK public finances were sustainable for the period 1919 to 2001 using a nonlinear representation of the debt to GDP ratio and thus provides a more robust test of debt sustainability. Empirical evidence supports debt sustainability. Moreover, the ESTAR representation is evidence that sustainability is the result of active debt management rather than tax-smoothing....

The purpose of this paper is study the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. We study the properties of a monetary model in which a real asset is valued for its rate of return and for its liquidity. We show that money is essential if and only if real assets are scarce, in the precise sense that their supply is not sufficient to satisfy the demand for liquidity. Our model generates a clear ...

this article examines the basic assumption of rational expectations hypothesis on iran's economy from 1966 to 2003. this assumption suggests the neutrality or ineffectiveness of money policy on the development of real variables of production and employment. the results from estimation of production equation do not support the significant influence of unanticipated component of money growth...

the objective of this study is to estimate the demand for money in iran using the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) approach to cointegration analysis. the empirical results show that there is a unique cointegrated and stable long-run relationship among m1 monetary aggregate, income, inflation and exchange rate. we find that the income elasticity and exchange rate coefficients are positive ...

this paper, i have focused on the tax side of the fiscal policy to  investigate the past and future behavior of fiscal sustainability in iran. to do so, i have employed two different forward-looking and backward-looking approaches. first, the backward-looking approach is the fiscal policy rule proposed by daving & leeper (2011). precisely, this rule determines that whether the fiscal policy is ...

abstract today, debt stabilization in an uncertain environment is an important issue. in particular, the question how fiscal and monetary authorities should deal with this uncertainty is of much importance. especially for some developing countries such as iran, in which on average 60 percent of government revenues comes from oil, and consequently uncertainty about oil prices has a large effect ...

Search Frictions on Product and Labor Markets: Money in the Matching Function This paper builds a macroeconomic model of equilibrium unemployment in which firms persistently face difficulties in selling their production and this affects their decisions to create jobs. Due to search-frictions on the product market, equilibrium unemployment is a U-shaped function of the ratio of total demand to t...

We consider inflation and debt dynamics under a global interest rate rule when private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Given the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low-inflation steady state. Under learning the economy can slip below this low-inflation steady state and be driven to an even lower inflation floor s...

This paper examines equilibrium determination under different monetary policy regimes when the government might default on its debt. We apply a cash-inadvance model where the government does not have access to non-distortionary taxation and does not account for initial outstanding debt when it sets the income tax rate. Solvency is then not guaranteed and sovereign default can affect the return ...