نتایج جستجو برای: model uncertainty
تعداد نتایج: 2184387 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
The purpose of current paper is to survey the asymmetric effects of inflation's positive and negative shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. For this end, first, the Ball model (1992) has been extended through the decomposition of inflation shocks to money demand's positive and negative shocks and money supply's positive and negative shocks. Then, through using nonlinear aut...
This research uses the multilayer perceptron (MLP) model to predict daily evaporation at two synoptic stations located in Rasht and Manjil, Guilan province, in north-west of Iran. Initially the most important combinations of climatic parameters for both of the stations were identified using the gamma test; and daily evaporation were modeled based on the obtained optimal combination. The results...
There are some parameters in hydrologic models that cannot be measured directly. Estimation of hydrologic model parameters by various approaches and different optimization algorithms are generally error-prone, and therefore, uncertainty analysis is necessary. In this study we used DREAM-ZS, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis, to investigate uncertainties of hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) pa...
Background and Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a mass balance model to estimate the rate of aerobic processes in a landfill. Materials and Methods: Monte Carlo simulation is a common method to evaluate uncertainty of the results of a model. Here, we used a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The data obtained from the experiments were used as...
Uncertainty associated with mixing models is often substantial, but has not yet been fully incorporated in models. The objective of this study is to develop and apply a Bayesian-mixing model that estimates probability distributions of source contributions to a mixture associated with multiple sources for assessing the uncertainty estimation in sediment fingerprinting in Zidasht catchment, Iran....
Abstract – Distributed generation (DG) technology is known as an efficient solution for applying in distribution system planning (DSP) problems. Load growth uncertainty associated with distribution network is a significant source of uncertainty which highly affects optimal management of DGs. In order to handle this problem, a novel model is proposed in this paper based on DG solution, consideri...
In portfolio selection models, uncertainty plays an important role. The parameter’s uncertainty leads to getting away from optimal solution so it is needed to consider that in models. In this paper we presented a two-stage robust model that in first stage determines the desired percentage of investment in each industrial group by using return and risk measures from different industries. One rea...
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth uncertainty in Iran for the period of 1988-2008 by using quarterly data. We employ Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate time-varying conditional residual variance of growth, as a standard measures of growth uncertainty. The empirical evidence shows that growth uncertain...
Reliable location routing problem considers a location problem and a vehicle routing problem in order to select the optimal location of facilities and at the same time the optimal routes for vehicles considering the unexpected failure for facilities in which, all facilities may fail with a probability. In this paper, a bi-objective mathematical model has been developed to minimize the total cos...
abstract: in most industries the cost of raw materials and component parts constitutes almost 60% percent of cost of a product (in some industries up to 80%). in this situation, proper sourcing can play a key role in an organization's efficiency and effectiveness, because it has a direct effect on cost reduction, profitability and flexibility of a company. in this paper, determining the op...
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