To explore human deviations from Bayes’ rule in numerically explicit problems, prior and likelihood probabilities or frequencies are manipulated and their effects on posterior probabilities or surprisals are measured. Results show that people use both priors and likelihoods in Bayesian directions, but the effect of likelihood information is stronger than that of prior information. Use of freque...

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the identification of the coefficients and are expressed in the natural metric of the outcome probability. While we d...

on comparing responses to pairs of items irrespective of other items. The pseudo-likelihood method is comparable to Fischer’s (1974) Minchi method. A simulation study found that the pseudo-likelihood estimates and their (estimated) standard errors were comparable to conditional and marginal maximum likelihood estimates. The method is extended to estimate parameters of the linear logistic test m...

1 In this paper, the necessity for treating intra-household correlation is investigated by analyzing 2 two travel behavior indices, i.e. travel time and travel distance, for three important travel motives 3 (commuting, shopping, and leisure). Data stemming from the 2010 Belgian National Household 4 Travel Survey are used in the analysis. Two model approaches that accommodate for intra5 househol...

Empirical studies show that there is stronger dependency between large losses than large profit in financial market, which undermine the performance of using symmetric distribution for modeling these asymmetric. That is why the assuming normal joint distribution of returns is not suitable because of considering the linier dependence, and can be lead to inappropriate estimate of VaR. Copula theo...

In this paper, we consider the estimation of both the parameters and the nonparametric link function in partially linear single-index models for longitudinal data which may be unbalanced. In particular, a new three-stage approach is proposed to estimate the nonparametric link function using marginal kernel regression and the parametric components with generalized estimating equations. The resul...

In this paper, we explore a connection between binary hierarchical models, their marginal polytopes and codeword polytopes, the convex hulls of linear codes. The class of linear codes that are realizable by hierarchical models is determined. We classify all full dimensional polytopes with the property that their vertices form a linear code and give an algorithm that determines them.