This paper suggests a bootstrap testing procedure for determining the rank of cointegrated systems. The properties of the new testing procedure are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the test compares favourably to that of the widely used procedures for determining cointegration rank proposed by Johansen (1988). JEL classi cation: C12; C15; C32.

In recent research, Leybourne and Newbold (2003) have shown commonly employed tests of cointegration to exhibit spurious rejection when applied to independent unit root processes subject to breaks in either level or trend. In the present paper, this research is extended to consider the finite-sample properties of cointegration tests which explicitly incorporate structural change. It is shown th...

This paper applies conventional tests (Johansen, 1995) and new tests (Chao and Phillips,1999) for cointegration to long{run money demand functions using Canadian data from 1872 to 1997. If cointegration is found, recently proposed tests by Quintos (1997) for stability of the cointegration rank are carried out. The paper focuses on two spans of data: one span starting in 1872, the other in 1957 ...

Uutilizing unit root and cointegration techniques, we find out of 96 countries only 8 show unidirectional or bidirectional causality from exports to GDP with positive relationship between the two variables. Causality from GDP to Exports with positive relationship between the two variables is found for only 9 countries.

Using panel cointegration techniques, we show a cointegrating relationship exists between capital and productivity in 446 manufacturing industries. Panel DOLS and FMOLS estimates reveal that innovations to productivity increase and Granger cause capital movements.  2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

We propose a new method to determine the cointegration rank in the error correction model of Engle and Granger (1987). To this end, we first estimate the cointegration vectors in terms of a residual-based principal component analysis. Then the cointegration rank, together with the lag order, is determined by a penalized goodness-of-fit measure. We have shown that the estimated cointegration vec...

The structure of the package apt and the implementation of models for asymmetric price transmission (APT) are explained in this note. This type of economic analysis is typically time series analysis with the steps of unit root test, cointegration test, and finally error correction model. APT studies have evolved with several distinct stages: pre-cointegration, linear cointegration, nonlinear th...

The degree of empirical support of a priori plausible structures on the cointegration vectors has a central role in the analysis of cointegration. Historically, this question has been answered by classical testing of over-identifying restrictions on the cointegration space. This paper introduces an exact finite sample Bayesian procedure to calculate the posterior probability of restrictions on ...