We investigate the range of inflationary universe models driven by scalar fields possessing a general interaction potential of the form V (φ) = V0φ n exp(−λφm). Power-law, de Sitter and intermediate inflationary universes emerge as special cases together with several new varieties of inflation. Analysing the behaviour of these models at the extrema of φ we derive sufficient constraints on the m...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of "pure" inflation: the common component in goods' inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is...

With inflation and policy interest rates at historically low levels, policymakers show great concern about "downside tail risks" due to a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Low probability or tail events, such as sustained deflation or recession, are disruptive for the economy and can be difficult to resolve. This paper shows that price-level targeting mitigates downside tail risks res...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is...

This paper considers the impact of monetary policy on inflation–output variability trade-off for Sri Lanka and in doing so, draws lessons formulation early-stage developing economies. We examine how this has changed across different episodes, investigate persistence economic shocks inflation output. After exploring contribution towards macroeconomic performance more generally, we use experience...

This paper shows that the optimal monetary policies recommended by New Keynesian models still imply a large amount of inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority adopts the optimal policy. When the monetary policy rules are modified to include some weight on a price path, the economy achieves equilibria with substa...

The Polish Government, in 1977, inaugurated a new pension program that made old-age and invalidity benefits available for the first time to most farmers in that country. The evolution and eventual failure of that program were closely intertwined with a growing national economic crisis, manifested in widespread popular unrest and culminating in emergence of the Solidarity movement. The farmers' ...

Following a suggestion by Gasperini and Veneziano, that String Cosmology can be reconciled with Inflation and, hence, with the Standard Big Bang, we display an analytical solution which possesses four interesting properties: (1) it is non-singular; (2) it distinguishes the dynamics of the external scale factor, a(t), from that of the internal one, b(t); (3) it exhibits a non-monotonic behavior ...

A number of authors have developed varied indices for measuring central bank independence with the aim of determining whether there is any association between central bank independence and inflation rates. Most analyses focused on industrialized countries, although more recently the interest has shifted to the emerging and less developed countries. The general trust of the results of these stud...