This paper proposes a discrete-time hazard regression approach based on the relation between hazard rate models and excess over threshold models, which are frequently encountered in extreme value modelling. The proposed duration model employs a exible link function and incorporates the grouped-duration analogue of the wellknown Cox proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as s...

Volcanic hazard assessment is of paramount importance for the safeguard of the resources exposed to volcanic hazards. In the paper we present ELFM, a lava flow simulation model for the evaluation of the lava flow hazard on Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), the most important active volcano in Europe. The major contributions of the paper are: (a) a detailed specification of the lava flow simulation mo...

one of the most important problem and issues in metropolises is natural hazards and the earthquake is the most important of them in developing countries. according to this theme, comprehensive disaster management especially earthquake is an important factor to safe people life and evaluate risks by complete and update information bank, exact and modern hardware and gis and karmania hazard softw...

Conventional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only considers mainshock events and uses a time-independent earthquake rupture forecast to describe the occurrence of mainshocks. This approach neglects long-term time-dependency mainshocks on specific fault segments, interaction adjacent faults, spatial temporal clustering aftershocks. study integrates recently proposed advanced fault-b...

In the analysis of competing risk data, the observed effect of a covariate can be obtained via a Fine and Gray sub-distribution hazard ratio. Sometimes, it is also desirable to obtain the virtual effect of a covariate as if the competing risks were non-existent. Under the latent failure time scenario, when the event of interest and the competing risk event are independent, the cause-specific ha...

rivers are important water resources for human life, but sometimes cause irreparable damages. the flood plains are fertile terrains which are endangered by flood. flood hazard mapping is one of the basic methods in flood fighting. in order to decline flood damages, the simulation of the hydraulic behavior of the rivers during flood occurrence is very important. in this study, areas that are flo...