After joining the the euro, several countries with a history of high inflation (notable examples include Greece and Italy) experienced sharp reductions in inflation together with a prolonged build up of sovereign debt. In this paper we propose a rationalization for this phenomenon. To do so, we explore the interaction between inflation credibility and the debt dynamics that arise when an impati...

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long-term debt is present, th...

I document that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets: (i) the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns with out-of-sample R2 up to 30% at a five-year horizon, outperforming many popular predictors; (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively correlated with credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads; (iii) higher debt-...

he improvements in development in Latin America and the Caribbean observed from the 1950s through the early 1970s have started to decline. Principal factors include growing external debt, the world trade imbalance due to the increase in the price of oil and manufactured products and the decrease of primary products. This deterioration of socioeconomic conditions has increasingly and primarily a...

Global HIV control funding falls short of need. To maximize health outcomes, it is critical that national governments sustain reasonable commitments, and that international donor assistance be distributed according to country needs and funding gaps. We develop a country classification framework in terms of actual versus expected national domestic funding, considering resource needs and donor fi...

What determines the sustainability of sovereign debt? In this paper, we develop a model where myopic governments seek electoral popularity but can nevertheless commit credibly to service external debt. They do not default when they are poor even though default costs are low because they would lose access to debt markets and be forced to reduce spending; they do not default when they become rich...

Nominal government debt, including the monetary base, is a residual claim to government surpluses. Thus, the value of Þat money can be determined in a completely frictionless economy, just like the price of stock. The main theoretical objection to this Þscal theory of the price level is that it mistreats the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. I show that the valuation equation for no...

Over many years, Ben Friedman’s economic research and writings in political economy frame economic analysis of— and moral consideration of—large government budget deficits and the need for fiscal consolidation in the United States. In his book The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Friedman emphasizes the salutary effects economic growth for openness and social cohesion. This essay emphasiz...

Behavioral economics presents a “paternalistic”rationale for benevolent government intervention. This paper presents a model of public debt where voters have self-control problems and attempt to commit by accumulating illiquid assets. We introduce politicians who may indulge/exploit voters’behavioral biases. Three main insights emerge: (i) Individuals’attempts to privately undo the consequences...