This paper investigates whether the degree of predictability can be explained by existing asset pricing models, and provides two theoretical upper bounds on the R-square of the regression of stock returns on predictors for given classes of models of interest. Empirically, we find that the predictive R-square is significantly larger than the upper bounds permitted by well known asset pricing mod...

Hedge funds have the most sophisticated risk management practices; however, hedge funds also appear to have a short lifetime relative to other managed funds. In this study, we investigate the failure probabilities of hedge funds—particularly the failures due to financial distress. We forecast the failure probabilities of hedge funds using both a proportional hazard model and a logistic model. B...

We examine the roles of idiosyncratic and systemic funding liquidity risks in bank failures. We estimate a discrete-time hazard model of bank failure using data of U.S. commercial banks between 1985 and 2004, and examine its out-of-sample forecasting performance between 2005 and 2011. The out-of-sample performance comparison shows this model outperforms typical bank failure prediction models. W...

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time. Analyzing one-minute cumulative trading volumes of five large NASDAQ stocks in 2008, we show that local win...

This paper provides implied measures of higher-order dependencies between assets. The measures exploit only forward-looking information from the options market and can be used to construct an implied estimator of the covariance, co-skewness, and co-kurtosis matrices of asset returns. We implement the estimator using a sample of US stocks. We show that the higher-order dependencies vary heavily ...

The stochastic modeling and determination of reserves and risk capitals for variable annuity guarantee products are relatively new developments in the insurance industry. The current market practice is largely based on Monte Carlo simulations, which have great engineering flexibility but the demand for heavy computational power can be prohibitive in many cases. In this paper, we distinguish and...

We provide evidence for the importance of information asymmetry in asset pricing by using three natural experiments. Consistent with rational expectations models with multiple assets and multiple signals, we find that prices and uninformed demand fall as asymmetry increases. These falls are larger when more investors are uninformed, turnover is larger and more variable, payoffs are more uncerta...

Benjamin C. Garcia, ) Marleen Kamperman, Ralph Ulrich, Anurag Jain, Sol M. Gruner, and Ulrich Wiesner* Department of Materials Science and Engineering and Department of Physics and Cornell High Energy Synchrotron Source (CHESS), Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853. ) Present address: Hewlett-Packard IPG R&D, 16399 W Bernardo Drive, MS 61U66, San Diego, CA 92127. Present address: Leibniz ...