The properties of forward and futures interest-rate contracts associated with a given collection of reset dates are studied within the frameworks of the Gaussian HJM model and the lognormal model of Libor rates. We focus on the dynamics and distributional properties of spot, forward, and futures Libor rates under spot and forward martingale measures.

This paper investigates price uncertainties in weather derivatives contracts through a bootstrap approach. Futures prices are computed under a periodic ARMA model in an actuarial framework for two different locations, Paris and Chicago. We show that statistical errors may lead to substantial uncertainties on futures prices with confidence intervals up to 10% of the assessed prices.

We analyze the hedging effectiveness of positions that replicate stock indexes using corresponding futures contracts through the application of a dynamic, stochastic hedging strategy proposed by Lafuente and Novales (2003). Conclusive gains do not emerge in any of the markets analyzed over the period considered, relative to the use of a constant unit hedge ratio. These findings are consistent w...

We propose a mean-reverting model for the spot price dynamics of electricity which includes seasonality of the prices and spikes. The dynamics is a sum of non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with jump processes giving the normal variations and spike behaviour of the prices. The amplitude and frequency of jumps may be seasonally dependent. The proposed dynamics ensures that spot prices are...

In this paper we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California-Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium fo...

traded against two simple orders or another combination. Liquidity is enhanced by matching simple orders against combination orders whenever possible. As long as prices are available in one contract and in the combination market, liquidity is automatically transmitted to all contracts. Although SOFFEX has implemented a subset of these combination functions, the implications of this functionalit...

In this paper we discuss how our insight into the grounds of existence of futures markets has changed. We discuss futures market research within agricultural marketing, on the one hand, and within finance, on the other hand. The research within these two disciplines may be considered complementary. Subsequently, a new research model is presented which integrates both strains of research. This m...

Commodity derivatives are becoming an increasingly important part of the global derivatives market. Here we develop a tractable stochastic volatility model for pricing commodity derivatives. The model features unspanned stochastic volatility, quasi-analytical prices of options on futures contracts, and dynamics of the futures curve in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector. We estimate ...

This paper describes a set of experiments performed with an artiicial futures market simulation. The non-rational market participants, which evolve simple strategies using genetic algorithms, compete against each other to make proots by buying and selling futures contracts. The dynamic and equilibrium behavior of the participants is studied under a variety of conditions. The results suggest tha...