in this paper, i develop three forecasting models: namely structural, times series, and artificial neural networks; to forecast iranian inflation rates. the structural model uses aggregate demand and aggregate supply approach, the time series model is based on the standard arlma technique, and the artificial neural network applies multi-layer back propagation model the latter, which is rooted i...

Bayesian learning implies decreasing weights on prior beliefs and increasing weights on the accuracy of the analyst’s past forecast record, as the number of forecast errors comprising her forecast record (its length) increases. Consistent with this model of investor learning, empirical tests show that investors’ reactions to forecast news are increasing in the product of the accuracy and length...

conclusions applying this information can be useful to policy makers and managers for planning and implementing special interventions to prevent and limit future accidental deaths. background traffic accidents are the main cause of deaths in developing countries. fatalities due to traffic accidents are assessed through a three-year time series forecast. objectives the aim of this study is to us...

Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990’s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase of computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecast tends to assimilate initial uncertainty (both observation and analysis errors) and forecast uncertainty (model errors) by applying either initial perturbation me...

Gold price has significant nonlinearity and time-variance with many indeterminate influencing factors. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of gold price, this paper puts forward a gold price forecast model combing projection pursuit with neural network. At first, projection pursuit algorithm is used to screen the influencing factors, and then the influencing factors are used as the input ...

The aim of the present research is to determine the effects of financial information transparency and composition of board of directors on forecast accuracy of corporate earnings in companies. A corporation's key for success is hidden in its optimal direction. So it can be claimed that the secret of the eternal reputation of popular corporations lies in their efficient board of directors. One o...

Precipitation forecast verification is essential to the quality of a forecast. The Gaussian Mixture Model can be used to approximate the precipitation of several rain bands and provide a concise view of the data, which is especially useful for comparing forecast and observation data. The robustness of such comparison mainly depends on the consistency of and the correspondence between the extrac...