We compare the performance of a subset of CBO’s economic forecasts against that of an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model. We evaluate forecasts of real economic indicators as well as budget-related nominal statistics. We find that under most specifications, the VAR performs competitively with, if slightly worse than, the corresponding CBO forecasts at up to 20 quarters. Therefore, a...

A major puzzle in international finance is the well-documented inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While this literature has generally employed statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we investigate whether there is any economic value to the predictive power of monetary fundamental...

abstract on 6 december 2006, australia and korea announced a joint study on a possible australia-korea free trade agreement (akfta) to promote trade and economic relations between the two countries. the paper provides empirical evidence on the possible gains and their transmission mechanism from this agreement. significantly, it uses a new economic policy modelling approach, the endogenous grav...

recent strong growth of china’s exports has elevated the country to a rising global economic power and caused geo-political concern to policy-makers in the country and its trading partners world-wide. what are the determinants of this growth, how has it affected major economies in asean (world bank, 2009) in particular, and what kind of evidence-based responses are required and appropriate? the...

Abstract On 6 December 2006, Australia and Korea announced a joint study on a possible Australia-Korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) to promote trade and economic relations between the two countries. The paper provides empirical evidence on the possible gains and their transmission mechanism from this agreement. Significantly, it uses a new economic policy modelling approach, the endogenous grav...