We propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet unexplained aspect of addictive behavior, starting from the recent theory developed by Bernheim and Rangel (2004). While the Bernheim and Rangel model generates many distinctive patterns of addiction, it does not explicitly consider pathways to natural recovery. Based on insights from the neurosciences, we introduce an ”implicit cognitive...

Several political and economic factors are involved in choosing exchange rate policy in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. In the present study, these factors  have been investigated with an emphasis on OCA and political economic factors during 1990 -2014. The result shows that OCA and political economic factors as well as tradable sector are influential on exchange rate poli...

Environmental problems, such as climate change, have great uncertainties. Current expectations are that uncertainties about climate change will be resolved quickly. We examine this hypothesis theoretically and computationally. We consider Bayesian learning about the relationship between greenhouse gas levels and global mean temperature changes, a key uncertainty. Learning is non-trivial because...

The aim of this study was to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Stock index of Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, we first calculated the exchange rate fluctuations using model General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH), and then the effect of these fluctuations on the Stock index of Tehran Stock Exchange was estimated using the Generalized...

The paper examines the economic role of modelling information on the decision problem of an exporting firm under exchange rate risk and hedging. Information is described in terms of market transparency, i.e., a publicly observable signal conveys more information about the random foreign exchange rate. We analyze the interaction between market transparency and the ex ante expected utility of the...

abstract fars province with a share of more than 16 percent holds the highest rank in producing tomato in iran. this study aims at determining priorities for tomato processing centers in fars province’s townships. to achieve the study objective a distance minimizing pattern was used for transportation network between producing and processing centers as well as processing and consumption centers...

exchange rate prediction, as one of the main variables in macroeconomics, has been one of the aims of the economic research for a long time. for modeling and predicting exchange rate we apply stochastic differential equation, specifically we use geometric brownian motion (gbm) and jump-diffusion process (mjdp) attributed to merton. we show that the result of simulation based on gbm and mjdp out...

fluctuation of exchange rate and its deviation from equilibrium path are one of the most important macroeconomic variables that is affected by different side of economical sectors. whereas, the exchange rate fluctuation and its deviation from equilibrium path haven’t the same and similar effects on all of the economical sectors, and considering eminent important of industrial development on the...

This paper analyses the portfolio problem of an investor maximizing the expected exponential utility of his terminal real wealth. The investor must cope with both a set of stochastic investment opportunities and a set of background risks. If the market is complete we are able to find an exact solution. If the market is incomplete, we suggest an approximated general solution. Contrary to other e...

When an irreversible decision is taken under uncertainty there is an option value of delay. If a small number of agents are in competition each one’s ability to delay is restricted by the fear of preemption, seeming to undermine the real options approach. We present a model in which two firms may invest in competing research projects with uncertain returns. Two distinct types of equilibria aris...