4 Numerical weather prediction models have a number of parameters whose values 5 are either estimated from empirical data or theoretical calculations. These values are 6 usually then optimized according to some criterion (e.g., minimizing a cost function) in 7 order to obtain superior prediction. To that end, it is useful to know which parameters 8 have an effect on a given forecast quantity, a...

Weather forecasts are an important input to many electricity demand forecasting models. This study investigates the use of weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting for lead times from one to 10 days ahead. A weather ensemble prediction consists of 51 scenarios for a weather variable. We use these scenarios to produce 51 scenarios for the weather-related component of electr...

Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembl...

This work unit is part of a coupled 6.2-6.4 development effort to implement rapid transition of aerosol prediction and EO tactical decision aid capability to the Fleet and is carried out by NRL-Montery and SPAWAR-SSC. The coupled program will improve the components of the Target Acquisition Weather Software (TAWS) and couple operational EO tactical decision aids (TDA's) to numerical weather pre...

This paper presents an initial validation of a solar radiation service that provides historical, as well as up-to-the-moment solar resource data from satellites, short-term forecasts from cloud motion analysis, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts are validated for several, climatically distinct regions of the US, investigati...

Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height. This paper discusses methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System. The ECMWF system produces Monte Carlo style forecasts of wave statistics out to a lead time of 10 days. This ensemble of forecasts ...

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weathe...

A model intercomparison between two atmospheric models, the non–hydrostatic Lokal Modell (LM) and the hydrostatic HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) is carried out for a one-week period, including a case of cyclogeneis leading to heavy precipitation over Northern Italy. The two models, very different in terms of data-assimilation and numerics, provide different results in terms of fore...

The work reported here was undertaken to gain an understanding of the weather forecasting process in a naturalistic setting that involves task switching and moderate time pressure. In the first study, Navy weather forecasters verbalized their thoughts while they completed a standard forecasting task. In the second study, Navy weather forecasters completed a questionnaire after finishing each of...