Abstract A lower bound on the uncertainty in observational estimates of aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE; interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and forcing [DRF; just anthropogenic aerosols (RF ari )] is quantified making optimistic assumption that global observations can be made accuracy found Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The global-mean all-sky ...

[1] A set of Markov models is developed based on a statistical linearization of 5 coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and is applied to ensemble prediction of the tropical Indo‐ Pacific sea surface temperature variations. By taking advantage of the long data records of IPCC simulations, t...

Abstract Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of IPCC’s 5th (AR5) forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO 2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations fr...

Forecasts of decadal climate change at subcontinental scales made by global climate models (GCMs) are currently too uncertain to be useful to policy makers. For example, the forecasts of global mean surface temperatures in the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B scenario show an agreement across 15 models of about ±0.75 K in warming of...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-...

The concept of climate sensitivity has more than a century of history. According to this concept, a change in the global near-surface air temperature of the Earth, T , due to external disturbance of the Earth’s energy balance, can be linearly related to a change in the net radiation at some level in the atmosphere, F. Thus,
T F, where is the climate sensitivity. By doubling the pre-industrial ...

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial d...

In public debates, climate change communication tends to polarize into communities for and against the scientific basis of global warming. We analyze mention networks on Twitter around publication Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Inter-governmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 2 3 reports that were published in March–April 2014. Building upon earlier research skepticism polarization d...

Delve a little deeper and the CCA report is largely based on the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Explore the IPCC's claims and the evidence there is also remarkably weak. First we have an assumption that temperature data is accurate and that a loose but delayed correlation between the increases in temperature and carbon dioxide is somehow evidence that carbon dio...

www.thelancet.com Vol 383 April 5, 2014 1185 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report on March 31, 2014. This report was the second instalment of the Fifth Assessment Report, prepared by Working Group 2, on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change. In this Comment, we, as contributors to the chapter on human health, explain how the IPCC rep...