International relations scholars have developed many theories to describe the evolution and existence of international conflicts. One important idea is the “democratic peace,” which argues that democracies are less likely to engage in conflict with each other. However, much of the work testing democratic peace theory has been static and does not address dynamic, causal mechanisms by which democ...

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To address these issues, we propose BVAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) combine transitory persistent changes in volatility. resulting density are much less sensitive outliers the than BVARs. Predictive B...

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis-a-vis the US Dollar. Since exchange...

This paper employs a large BVAR model with common stochastic volatility to examine the effects of oil supply shocks, global demand shocks and precautionary on 17 U.S. macroeconomic financial market variables from 1986Q1 2019Q2. Generalized impulse response functions calculated using provide time-varying account impacts occurring in each quarter. We also compute standard for sizes evident 2019Q2...

Central banks and other forecasters are increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility – such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices and the deep global recession – pose significant challenges to density forecasting. Accordingly, this paper...

Myotilin and the calsarcin family member FATZ-1 (also called calsarcin-2 or myozenin-1) are recently discovered sarcomeric proteins implicated in the assembly and stabilization of the Z-discs in skeletal muscle. The essential role of myotilin in skeletal muscle is attested by the observation that certain forms of myofibrillar myopathy and limb girdle muscular dystrophy are caused by mutations i...

Macroeconomic data are subject to revisions as later vintages released. Yet, the usual way of generating real-time density forecasts from BVAR models makes no allowance for this form uncertainty. We evaluate two methods that consider uncertainty when forecasting with with/without stochastic volatility. First, model is estimated on vintages. Second, a included, so on, and conditioned estimates r...

The domestic and international transmission mechanism of fiscal policy shocks are analysed in the United States Germany. Using a Bayesian VAR approach, we find that both these countries expansion is associated with increases output as well private consumption investment. terms trade, which affect shocks, depreciate response to expansion, thus transferring some increased purchasing power abroad....

This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peru's main macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination with identification scheme sign restrictions. The results indicate that LS shock: (i) reduces credit real GDP growth by 372 75 basis points period, respectively; (ii) explains 11.2% variability average over ...