For almost a century, anecdotes have suggested that divorce rates decline during recessions. However, until very recently there has been surprisingly little formal empirical evidence on whether such a link exists, let alone its magnitude if it does. Moreover, the anticipated direction of the effect is ambiguous theoretically. Although previous studies have concluded that individual job loss des...

A model of endogenous investment booms and busts with rational agents is presented where outside investors are uncertain about both industry (aggregate) and firm-specific capital productivity, and insiders manipulate information through strategic productivity disclosures. For intermediate and high levels of agency conflict, there are aggregate investment distortions along the equilibrium path, ...

Truck mounted concrete pump boom is typical flexible structure. Due to the increasing of boom length, the flexible characteristics play important role in the dynamics behavior. Three simulation models are built. The first is rigid model. The second is flexile model with four booms flexible used modal reduction technique. The last is added with boom hydraulic cylinder equivalent virtual spring d...

Systemic risk builds up endogenously during booms in an economy featuring asymmetric information in asset markets, where investors’ hidden effort choices determine asset quality distribution. Higher asset prices in booms induce more investors to sell their assets, which lowers their incentive to improve quality. This quality deterioration in turn makes the economy vulnerable to future exogenous...

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally diffi cult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of “social dynamics.”Agents with tighter ...

Abstract This paper provides the first evidence of positive bank-to-bank spillovers. I show that geographic linkages between banks engage in home lending same region transmit shocks from one bank to another. exploit deposit base located counties experiencing shale oil booms and a nonshocked nonboom county expands more if its have greater exposure booms. Results shock has impact on prices counti...

A multitude of factors contributed to the housing booms and crashes experienced in many countries and the ensuing global financial crisis. Much of the existing research on these issues assumes that agents have complete information about the economic environment and form rational expectations. This commentary argues that models with imperfect knowledge and learning provide a potentially rich ave...