A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of real equity prices in Australia is specified to contain common shocks in international equity markets and domestic shocks in Australian financial and goods markets. Common shocks are identified through the long-run comovements of international equity markets, resulting in the model being characterized as having more shocks than variables. The e...

t his paper investigates the existence of possible spillover effects among four main asset markets namely foreign exchange, stock, gold, and housing markets in iran from 2002:03 to 2015:06. for this purpose, we have exploited sigma-point kalman filter (spkf) to extract the bubble component of assets prices in the aforementioned markets. then, in order to analyze the price bubbles spillover amon...

abstract this paper attempts to re-investigate the catching-up (stochastic convergence) hypothesis among the selected 16 oecd countries applying the time series approach of convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century. to reach this aim, we propose a model which specifies a trend function, incorporating both types of structural breaks – that is, sharp breaks and smooth shifts using ...

exchange rate has the fundamental role as one of the economy key variables in determining the domestic price. so it is important to know how is the empirical relationship between the exchange rate and domestic prices and the factors influencing this relationship. the main objective of this study is to determine the effect of vehichel imports share on the exchange rate pass – through on domestic...

The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of entrepreneurship. We f...

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative— absolute values and signs—components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional copula. The approach is detailed in the case of a bivariate decomposition. We outline the construction of ...

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of ‘news’ shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by ‘non-fundamentalness’ and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explainin...

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when hedging commodity price risk using futures contracts. For various methods of parameter estimation and infe...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...