Using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude...

[1] We discuss the impact of uncertainties in computed coseismic stress perturbations on the seismicity rate changes forecasted through a rateand state-dependent frictional model. We aim to understand how the variability of Coulomb stress changes affects the correlation between predicted and observed changes in the rate of earthquake production. We use the aftershock activity following the 1992...

[1] The September 25, 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan aftershock (Mw=6.4) occurred on a down dip extension of the fault ruptured in the mainshock. Strong motion data were used to invert for the finite-source process and test for the causative fault plane. We performed a grid-search over a range of focal mechanisms and found a preferred model (strike=5 , dip=30 , slip=100 ) different from teleseismic studie...

Current assumptions on the level of inter-dependency between the magnitudes of earthquakes and the magnitudes of their aftershocks vary significantly, ranging from assumed independence for models like epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) to assumed positive correlation, at least for the events leading up to the largest earthquakes, for models like accelerated moment release. Recently, a met...

We estimate the loading rate in southern California and the change in stress induced by a transient slip event across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system in central California, using a model of static fatigue. We analyze temporal properties of aftershocks in order to determine the time delay before the onset of the power law aftershock decay rate. In creep-slip and stick-slip zones, we show that...