The purpose of this thesis is to investigate different formulations of multivariate GARCH models and to apply two of the popular ones – the BEKKGARCH model and the DCCGARCH model – in evaluating the volatility of a portfolio of zero-coupon bonds. Multivariate GARCH models are considered as one of the most useful tools for analyzing and forecasting the volatility of time series when volatility f...

Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial portfolios is a staggering task in financial risk management. The turmoil in financial markets as observed since September 2008 called for more complex VaR models, as ”standard” VaR approaches failed to anticipate the collective market movements faced during the financial crisis. Hence, recent research on portfolio management mainly focussed on mode...

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with timevarying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. While each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analogue. By impos...

We consider conditions for strict stationarity and ergodicity of a class multivariate BEKK processes $(X_t : t=1,2,\ldots )$ study the tail behavior associated stationary distributions. Specifically, we BEKK-ARCH where innovations are assumed to be Gaussian finite number lagged $X_t$ ’s may load into conditional covariance matrix . By exploiting that have stochastic recurrence equation represen...

Bu çalışmanın amacı, dünya petrol, kömür ve doğal gaz fiyatlarındaki değişikliklerin düzeltilmemiş piyasa faiz oranına göre düzeltilmiş BIST elektrik endeksinin getirisine etkisinin 17 Mayıs 2010 – 29 2020 dönemi için araştırılmasıdır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger Nedensellik testi ile, oynaklık yayılımı ise GARCH (1,1) ADC BEKK yöntemleri ile incelenmiştir. Analiz bulgul...

China’s introduction of CSI300 futures in 2010 has aroused widespread attention to whether the stock index futures market has effectively stabilized price fluctuations of its spot market in the past four years. Since the prices of CSI300 futures and CSI300 contain numerous noises and fluctuate drastically over time, this paper applies discrete wavelet transform to denoise these series by decomp...

In this paper, we examine the relationship between volatilities of energy index, crude oil, gas prices, and financial assets (Gold, Bitcoin, G7 stock indexes), especially during coronavirus crisis. The study tests presence regime changes in GARCH volatility dynamics indexes, Gold, (energy gas) by using Markov–Switching model. It estimates dynamic correlation spillover assets, multivariate MSGAR...

The focus of this article is to compare dynamic correlation models for the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios between pairs of assets. Finding an optimal hedge requires not only knowledge of the variability of both assets, but also of the co-movement between the two assets. For this purpose, use is made of industry standard methods, like the naive hedging or the CAPM approach, more ad...