We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics expectations for the United States other countries over postwar period. In our theory, long-run are endogenous. They driven by short-run surprises, way that depends on recent forecasting performance monetary policy. This distinguishes from common explanations properties inflation. Th...

We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal differs from a representative benchmark because can affect consumption inequality, by stabilizing risk arising both idiosyncratic shocks and unequal exposures to aggregate shocks. The trade-off between productive efficiency, price stability is su...

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of world economy, this paper estimates consequences probabilistic projections local sea changes. Under an intermediate scenario greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent present value terms. By year 2200, ...

Is credit expansion a sign of desirable financial deepening or the prelude to an inevitable bust? We study this question in modern US data using structural VAR model 10 monthly frequency variables, identified by heteroskedasticity. Negative reduced-form responses output growth are caused endogenous monetary policy response shocks. On average, and remain positively associated. “Financial stress”...

This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional varied little between 1980 1995 subsequently had three distinct peaks—during the tech boom, financial crisis, coronavirus epidemic. has mixed relationship with overall economic activity, aggregate is much more powerful for forecasting growth. The data...

General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits harvested, overestimation. call phenomenon Productivity J-curve. apply our me...

Transformer splicing regulatory proteins determine the sexually dimorphic traits of Drosophila. The role of the vertebrate homologs of Tra-2 in phenotypic specification is undefined. We are using the alternative splicing of the MYPT1 E23 exon as a model for the study of smooth muscle diversification into fast and slow contractile phenotypes. Tra2beta mRNA and protein is expressed at up to 10-fo...

We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. document four results. First, all countries, skewness of individual growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance flat acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that hours margin not main driver; additi...

The challenge for stabilization policy presented by the COVID-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of circular flow payments, resulting in a failure what Keynes (1936) calls “effective demand.” As consequence, economic activity many sectors can be inefficiently low, and interest-rate cannot eliminate distortions—not because limit on extent to which interest rates reduced, but reductions ...