This study shows that annual output data of the G7 countries in the twentieth century are better characterized as transitory deviations from a (shifting) growth trend than as integrated processes. Furthermore, I find no two countries share common business cycles. JEL classification: C22, E32, 057

Li, Maddala, and Rush (1995) proposed a low-pass spectral filter method to estimate cointegrating vectors in small samples. This paper tests the effectiveness of the approach in the presence of measurement error. Two other methods, valid under the assumption of stationarity, are also tested. Email: [email protected], [email protected] Keyword: Measurement error, cointegrating vector, filter...

In this paper, I find that real U.S. GDP is better characterized as a trend stationary Markov-switching process than as having a (regime-dependent) unit root. I examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance. JEL Classification: E32, C22, E27.

The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by de"ning a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series. ( 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classixcation: C22; C51; C52; E32

This paper provides a theoretical functional representation of the density function related to the DickeyFuller random variable. The approach is extended to cover the multivariate case in two special frameworks: the independence and the perfect correlation of the series. key words: Dickey-Fuller distribution, unit root JEL codes: C12, C16, C22

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk depends heavily on the type of data transformation. JEL-Numbers: C12, C22, F31

This paper assesses the long-run bilateral trade relations between the US and Mexico. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had no additional impacts on import functions. Gradual switching existed even before the agreement became effective. © 2002 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F13; C22

This paper provides a theoretical fractional cointegration analysis in a nonparametric framework. We solve a generalized eigenvalues problem, extending Bierens’ (1997) approach. To this end, a couple of random matrices is constructed, distinguishing between stationary and nonstationary part of the fractional integrated process. The asymptotic behavior of such matrices is studied and convergence...