We drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios. They also rated each technique on seven innovation characteristics: relative advantage, compatibility, divisibilit...

Emerging technology drives technological development and innovation in diverse fields of technology. Emerging technology forecasting can predict the possible areas of emerging technology. However, it is difficult to forecast the emerging technology because most technology forecasting tasks depend on the subjective experience of experts. Patent analysis is an objective method to recognize the tr...

An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptu...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the structure and evolution of knowledge spillovers across technological domains. Specifically, dynamic patterns of knowledge flow among 29 technological domains, measured by patent citations for eight distinct periods, are identified and link prediction is tested for capability for forecasting the evolution in these cross-domain patent networks. The ...

In forecasting, data mining is frequently perceived as a distinct technological discipline without immediate relevance to the challenges of time series prediction. However, Hand (2009) postulates that when the large cross-sectional datasets of data mining and the high-frequency time series of forecasting converge, common problems and opportunities are created for the two disciplines. This comme...

A new methodology/language has been developed which serves to make available the workings of cross-impact analysis available to a much larger audience in that no technical sophistication is required to become expressive in the new language. Unlike the procedures developed by Gordon, et al our methods stress the structural dynamics of the system, the geometry of the linkages rather than refining...

In 2006, Daim et al. published the highly cited paper on forecasting emerging technologies with bibliometrics and patent analysis. In the paper, scientific publications and patent were used as a numerical input to for example system dynamic models or scenarios –elaborating on the current state and trend of technological development as a year-to-year indicator value. By forcing the indicator to ...