The gut microbiome is a dynamic system that changes with host development, health, behavior, diet, and microbe-microbe interactions. Prior work on gut microbial time series has largely focused on autoregressive models (e.g. Lotka-Volterra). However, we show that most of the variance in microbial time series is non-autoregressive. In addition, we show how community state-clustering is flawed whe...

The size of the economy-wide rebound effect is crucial for estimating contribution that energy efficiency improvements can make to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and understanding drivers use. Existing estimates, which vary widely, are based on computable general equilibrium models or partial econometric estimates. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we identify dynamic ca...

This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based on timing restrictions, long run restrictions, and restrictions on factor loadings are discussed and...

The purpose of this study is to analyse the dynamic response of a set of euro area macroeconomic variables to monetary policy and technology shocks. We do so by conducting simulations on three different models of the euro area. The first modelling approach corresponds to structural VAR models (SVAR), the second approach uses the NiGEM multi-country model developed by the National Institute of E...

In this paper we apply the method of inferred causation for macroeconomic analysis. First we introduce briefly the theory of inferred causation developed by Pearl and Verma (1991). We apply this method to the identification of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. In an example of monetary policy analysis we demonstrate how causal information embedded in the data can be used to identi...

The main substantive finding of the recent structural vector autoregression literature with a difference specification of hours (DSVAR) is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have used these results to argue that standard business cycle models in which technology shocks leads to a rise in hours should be discarded. We test the DSVAR approach by asking the following: Is t...

Abstract Color matching is an extremely critical aspect of interior design, and the development times has put forward higher requirements for science color matching. In this paper, framework structural vector autoregressive model established by introducing a equation in model, associating lagged value each endogenous variable deterministic time trend term, solving according to contemporaneous r...

We explore the use of external instrument SVAR to identify monetary policy shocks. We identify a forward guidance shock as the monetary shock component having zero instant impact on the policy rate. A contractionary forward guidance shock raises both future output and price level, stressing the relative importance of revealing policymakers’ view on future output and price level over committing ...