نتایج جستجو برای: sres scenarios
تعداد نتایج: 109841 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The method successfully reproduces the results of full simulations with these models. For a given emission scenario it provides the ensemble mean surface ozone change...
The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change ...
Economic analyses have produced widely differing estimates of the economic implications of policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation ranging from high costs to modest benefits. The main reason for the differences appears to be differences in approaches and assumptions. This paper analyses the extent to which the post-SRES model results for the global costs of GHG mitigation can be explained ...
The effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States over the next century is assessed by applying Standardized Precipitation Indices and the Palmer Drought Severity Index to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Rep...
Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future ...
assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution. in this study we projected future changes in maximum temperature and minimum temperature under cmip3 sres and cmip5 rcps scenarios with two station-based datasets (arazkoseh and nodeh) of the eastern golestan province. ch...
Adding the effects of changes in land cover to the A2 and B1 transient climate simulations described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change leads to significantly different regional climates in 2100 as compared with climates resulting from atmospheric SRES forcings alone. Agricultural expansion in the A2 scenario results in significa...
Abstract Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess relevance of in light changing global circumstances compare them with long-term developments determine if they are still plausible, considering newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, RCP/SSP, were ...
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