Economics prefers complete explanations: general over partial equilibrium, microfoundational over aggregate. Similarly, probabilistic accounts of causation frequently prefer greater detail to less as in typical resolutions of Simpson's paradox. Strategies of causal refinement equally aim to distinguish direct from indirect causes. Yet, there are countervailing practices in economics. Representa...

When prediction using a diagnostic test outperforms simple prediction using base rates, the test is said to be "clinically efficient," a term first introduced into the literature by Meehl and Rosen (1955) in Psychological Bulletin. This article provides three equivalent conditions for determining the clinical efficiency of a diagnostic test: (a) Meehl-Rosen (Meehl & Rosen, 1955); (b) Dawes (Daw...

Meta-analysis can be a powerful tool for demonstrating the applicability of a concept beyond the context of individual clinical trials and observational studies, including exploration of effects across different subgroups. Meta-analysis avoids Simpson's paradox, in which a consistent effect in constituent trials is reversed when results are simply pooled. Meta-analysis in critical care medicine...

For every integer k > 2 let [k] 1 is a subset of [k]<N of the form {w} ∪ { ww0(a0) ...wn(an) : n ∈ {0, ...,m− 1} and a0, ..., an ∈ [k] } where w is a word over k and (wn) m−1 n=0 is a finite sequence of left variable words over k. We study the behavior of a family of measurable events in a probability space index...