Post-breeding migration in land-based marine animals is thought to offset seasonal deterioration in foraging or other important environmental conditions at the breeding site. However the inter-breeding distribution of such animals may reflect not only their optimal habitat, but more subtle influences on an individual's migration path, including such factors as the intrinsic influence of each lo...

BACKGROUND Migrant and seasonal farmworking (MSFW) women patients experience substantially more intimate partner violence (IPV) than the general population, but few health-care providers screen patients for IPV. While researchers have examined screening practices in health-care settings, none have exclusively focused on MSFW women. OBJECTIVE The aim of this phenomenological study was to explo...

In this paper a class of seasonal space-time models is introduced for general lattice systems. Covariance properties of spatial rst-order models, including stationarity conditions, are studied. Procedures for examining spatial independence and symmetry of the models are developed. Estimation approaches in time series analysis are adopted, and forecasting techniques using the seasonal space-time...

variability only to a long term increasingly upward trend. To isolate and properly investigates the seasonal component and possible relationships with the sources of variation in skin cancer incidence it is necessary to separate uncorrelated obscuring time scales such as random noise and the long term trend [7]. Separation is achieved using a combination of low pass Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Filters ...

We propose a new seasonal adjustment method based on the regularized singular value decomposition (RSVD) of the matrix obtained by reshaping the seasonal time series data. The method is flexible enough to capture two kinds of seasonality: the fixed seasonality that does not change over time and the time-varying seasonality that varies from one season to another. RSVD represents the time-varying...

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an enviro...

BACKGROUND In Lithuania, suicides are a grave public health problem, requiring more extensive investigation. The aim of the study was to assess the seasonal variations of suicides in Lithuania throughout the years 1993-2002, describing patterns by gender, age and method of suicide. METHODS The study material consisted of all registered suicides (n = 16,147) committed throughout 1993-2002 in L...

2 Annual and quarterly data on German GDP are decomposed into a nonstationary trend, a stationary cycle and a seasonal component using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. The computed trend components of the unobserved component models are then used to calculate annual and quarterly output gap measures for the German economy.

Most of today’s time series data contain anomalies and multiple seasonalities, accurate anomaly detection in these is critical to almost any type business. However, most mainstream forecasting models used for can only incorporate one or no seasonal component into their forecasts cannot capture every known pattern data. In this paper, we propose a new multi-seasonal model that extends the popula...

This study compares two new seasonal adjustment methods designed to handle outliers and structural changes: X-IZARIMA and GAUSUM-STM. X12-ARIMA is a successor to the X-ll-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, and is being developed at the U.S. Bureau of the Census (Findley et al. (1988)). GAUSUM-STM is a non-Gaussian method using time series structural models, and was developed for this study based...