This paper proposes a simple direct testing procedure to distinguish a linear unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. We derive the asymptotic null distribution of the Wald statistic, and show that it does not depend on unknown fixed threshold values. Monte Carlo evidence clearly indicates that the exponential average of the Wald...

This paper proposes a new methodology to build composite coincident and leading indexes. Based on a formal definition that requires that the first differences of the leading index is the best linear predictor of the first differences of the coincident index, it is shown that the notion of polynomial serial correlation common features can be used to build these composite variables. Concepts and ...

The Enders and Granger (1998) unit-root test against stationary alternatives with asymmetric adjustment is applied to the extended Nelson and Plosser dataset. The test rejects the unit-root null roughly as frequently as does the ADF test. JEL Classification C32, E32 * Correspondence: Philip Rothman Department of Economics East Carolina University Greenville, NC 27858 Phone: 252-328-6151 Fax: 25...

We develop a multivariate generalization of the Markov–switching GARCH model introduced by Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella (2004b) and derive its fourth– moment structure. An application to international stock markets illustrates the relevance of accounting for volatility regimes from both a statistical and economic perspective, including out–of–sample portfolio selection and computation of Value– ...

Theoretically and experimentally, we generalize the analysis of acquiring a company (Samuelson and Bazerman 1985) by allowing for competition of both, buyers and sellers. Näıvety of both is related to the idea that higher prices exclude worse qualities. While competition of näıve buyers increases prices, competition of näıve sellers promotes efficiency enhancing trade. Our predictions are teste...

t he relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. in this research, by using a multivariate garch-in-mean var, we try to investigate direct effects of uncertainty of oil price on macroeconomics of iran by using annually data from 1965 to 2013.results show that uncertainty about oil prices had a negative and signific...

abstract this study uses annual data over the period 2005-2014 and the panel vecm approach to examine financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in africa. the study shows that financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness are linked by a set of long-run relationships. policy reaction to the positive financial inclusion shock is not significant. policy reaction to the positiv...

A panel of ex-ante forecasts of a single time series is modeled as a dynamic factor model, where the conditional expectation is the single unobserved factor. When applied to out-of-sample forecasting, this leads to combination forecasts that are based on methods other than OLS. These methods perform well in a Monte Carlo experiment. These methods are evaluated empirically in a panel of simulate...

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in volatility US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances local structural shocks from stochastic specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between endogenous variables and setting, find that interest rate uncertainty not only drives output inflation volatility, but also causes...

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no ev...