This paper examines whether the individual economic projections made by Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policymakers are consistent with macroeconomic theories: Okun’s law, Phillips curve, and Taylor rule. By analyzing FOMC’s between 2007 2014, I find that they revealing a significantly negative relationship unemployment output growth projections. On other hand, inflation associated curv...

A new approach for functional data description is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model with a discrete hidden logistic process which is adapted for modeling curves with abrupt or smooth regime changes. The model parameters are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework through a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. From the proposed generative model, a curve ...

We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Under additional assumptions, this rule is shown to be equivalent to the qu...

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at beginning twenty-first century has been virtual disappearance what was once a dominant focus, role money policy, and parallelly, liquidity preference-money supply (LM) curve. Economists used to consider policy with help LM curve as part analytical framework which captures demand for money. However, workhorse model modern theory New Ke...

Let d and k be positive integers. Let μ be a positive Borel measure on R2 possessing moments up to degree 2d − 1. If the support of μ is contained in an algebraic curve of degree k, then we show that there exists a quadrature rule for μ with at most dk many nodes all placed on the curve (and positive weights) that is exact on all polynomials of degree at most 2d − 1. This generalizes both Gauss...

We study how to derive a fuzzy rule-based classification model using the theoretical framework of belief functions. For this purpose we use the recently proposed Evidential c-means (ECM) to derive Takagi-Sugeno (TS) models solely from data. ECM allocates, for each object, a mass of belief to any subsets of possible clusters, which allows to gain a deeper insight in the data while being robust w...

A general methodology for stochastic fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude loading is proposed in this paper. The methodology combines a nonlinear fatigue damage accumulation rule and a stochastic S–N curve representation technique to achieve this objective. The nonlinear damage accumulation rule proposed in this paper improves the deficiencies inherent in the linear damage accumulat...