This paper focuses on the theory of uncovered interest rate parity and whether interest-rate differentials have resulted in the higher interest rate currency depreciating over time. Previous literature has empirically rejected the theory indicating that higher interest rate currencies have actually appreciated relative to lower interest rate currencies. In this paper, uncovered interest rate pa...

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation metho...

according to the importance of careful review of crude oil market fluctuations on the iranian economy, in this paper a multivariate model of markov switching vector error correction model (have been used). variables such as real gross domestic product in industrial sector, real effective exchange rate, real governmental expenditure, real import, inflation rate and real crude oil price is used t...

In the empirical literature, stationary and nonstationary behavior has been reported for the U.S. real interest rate over di¤erent time periods. We examine its long-run properties, through estimation of the order of integration, and interpret the results in light of the Taylor rule for monetary policy. When concentrating on the post-October 1987 period, our analysis suggests that the business c...

Article history: Received 15 February 2010 Received in revised form 13 February 2013 Accepted 21 February 2013 Available online 19 March 2013 This paper investigates the sources of the dynamic relationship between real exchange rates and stock return differentials in relation to the US market for the developed and emerging Asian markets. We, first, derive the dynamic conditional correlation (DC...

We show that factor forecasting models deliver real-time gains over autoregressive models for US real activity variables during the recent period, but are less successful for nominal variables. The gains are largely due to the Financial Crisis period, and are primarily at the shortest (one quarter ahead) horizon. Excluding the preGreat Moderation years from the factor forecasting model estimati...

This paper derives analytical results for determination of the window size that explores the trade-off between bias and forecast error variance to minimize the mean squared forecast error in the presence of breaks. We show analytically how to determine the estimation window optimally for the case with strictly exogenous regressors. Through Monte Carlo simulations the paper compares the performa...